Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(2:55) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model