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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 11 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP