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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

HOU
56.1%
PHI
43.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

HOU

Mike Tyson CB Out Concussion
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Hip
Senio Kelemete G Questionable Elbow
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Dunn DT Questionable Ankle
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Ankle
Lamar Miller RB Questionable Ankle

PHI

Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Carson Wentz QB Out Back
D.J. Alexander LB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Back
Cre'von LeBlanc CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 30
–
PHI 32

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:42 TD PHI (6:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 14:55 FG HOU (14:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 3 – PHI 7
  • Q2 10:27 TD HOU (10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – PHI 7
  • Q2 03:11 TD PHI (3:11) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [32-T.Mathieu]. HOU 9 – PHI 13
  • Q2 01:22 TD HOU (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 15 – PHI 13
  • Q3 05:35 FG PHI (5:35) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. HOU 16 – PHI 16
  • Q3 02:32 TD PHI (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 13-N.Agholor for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – PHI 22
  • Q4 10:30 TD PHI (10:30) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – PHI 29
  • Q4 04:49 TD HOU (4:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 27-D.Foreman for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 22 – PHI 29
  • Q4 02:11 TD HOU (2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 17-V.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. HOU 29 – PHI 29
  • Q4 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. HOU 30 – PHI 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 11 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 60%

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (14:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:05) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-D.Carter to HOU 25 for 8 yards (47-N.Gerry).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:24) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-58-P.Kalambayi. PENALTY on PHI-41-D.Bausby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (5:44) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 88-D.Goedert ran ob at HOU 2 for 6 yards.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (3:11) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [32-T.Mathieu].

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:09) 9-N.Foles up the middle to PHI 44 for 1 yard (97-A.Blackson).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 50%

    (9:32) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 78%

    (5:35) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 28%

    (2:38) 8-T.Daniel punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 28-A.Blue to PHI 24 for 5 yards (32-R.Douglas).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 32%

    (4:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.