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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 88-D.Goedert ran ob at HOU 2 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model