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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [32-T.Mathieu].

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model