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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 9-N.Foles up the middle to PHI 44 for 1 yard (97-A.Blackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model