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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.16 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model