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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 29

Houston Texans 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 29

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 28-A.Blue to PHI 24 for 5 yards (32-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP