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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 12

Houston Texans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model