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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to JAX 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to MIA 38 for 44 yards (2-M.Haack).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model