Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- QB edge to JAX: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.060 vs Cody Kessler (JAX) -0.065 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
JAX
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:53 TD MIA (9:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 38-B.Bolden for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – MIA 6
- Q1 02:32 TD JAX (2:32) 64-C.Reed reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – MIA 7
- Q4 10:59 FG JAX (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – MIA 7
- Q4 09:43 TD JAX (9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined. JAX 16 – MIA 7
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(:57) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 41 for 11 yards (55-J.Baker).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%
(13:16) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 53%
(10:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 23 for 10 yards (88-L.Carroo). PENALTY on JAX-43-Q.Meeks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%
(6:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%
(3:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to MIA 13, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:22) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to JAX 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to MIA 38 for 44 yards (2-M.Haack).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%
(9:50) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:27) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 28 for 3 yards (41-T.Herndon).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to JAX 41, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(10:59) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(5:21) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.