4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

5-10 HC Doug Marrone
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

7-8 HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

JAX
37.3%
MIA
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.060 vs Cody Kessler (JAX) -0.065 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19 12–26
–
MIA 22 15–29
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Quadricep
Ronnie Harrison S Out Knee
Josh Lambo K Out right Groin
Jermey Parnell T Out Knee

MIA

T.J. McDonald S Doubtful Ankle
Brock Osweiler QB Questionable Back
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Knee
Ziggy Hood DE Questionable Hamstring
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Kendrick Norton DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
MIA 7

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:53 TD MIA (9:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 38-B.Bolden for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 02:32 TD JAX (2:32) 64-C.Reed reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – MIA 7
  • Q4 10:59 FG JAX (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – MIA 7
  • Q4 09:43 TD JAX (9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined. JAX 16 – MIA 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:57) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 41 for 11 yards (55-J.Baker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (13:16) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 23 for 10 yards (88-L.Carroo). PENALTY on JAX-43-Q.Meeks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (6:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (3:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to MIA 13, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to JAX 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to MIA 38 for 44 yards (2-M.Haack).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%

    (9:50) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:27) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 28 for 3 yards (41-T.Herndon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to JAX 41, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:21) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →