Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to JAX 41, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model