4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model