Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(:57) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 41 for 11 yards (55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model