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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model