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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -14.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LA
77.0%
ARI
23.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.249 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.319 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 27
–
ARI 17
Projected margin: LA by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LA

Justin Davis RB Questionable Shoulder
Todd Gurley RB Questionable Knee

ARI

Markus Golden DE Questionable Ankle
Patrick Peterson CB Questionable Illness
Rudy Ford S Questionable Ribs
Rodney Gunter DT Questionable Foot
Will Holden G Questionable Shoulder
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Illness
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 31
–
ARI 9

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:11 FG ARI (7:11) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. LA 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 04:03 TD LA (4:03) 17-R.Woods right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 11:59 TD LA (11:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – ARI 3
  • Q2 09:47 TD ARI (9:47) 3-J.Rosen backwards pass to 11-L.Fitzgerald. 11-L.Fitzgerald pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – ARI 9
  • Q2 02:15 TD LA (2:15) 35-C.Anderson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – ARI 9
  • Q3 05:41 FG LA (5:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 24 – ARI 9
  • Q4 09:27 TD LA (9:27) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 17-R.Woods for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – ARI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (7:11) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:37) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-51-G.Hodges.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 44%

    (12:00) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (5:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:15) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for 11 yards (29-C.Edmonds). PENALTY on LA-54-B.Hager, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 17 for 1 yard (37-S.Shields).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (14:11) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds right end pushed ob at ARI 45 for 20 yards (11-K.Hodge).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 28%

    (11:45) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:26) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to LA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 49 for 26 yards (46-A.Brewer).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (5:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-32-T.Hill.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 97%

    (2:58) (No Huddle) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to LA 10 for no gain (52-R.Wilson, 37-S.Shields). Arizona challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 02:51.)