4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-32-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model