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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (No Huddle) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to LA 10 for no gain (52-R.Wilson, 37-S.Shields). Arizona challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 02:51.)

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model