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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-51-G.Hodges.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model