Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

(9:34) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to NO 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model