4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

PIT
38.6%
NO
61.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.317 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.251 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

James Conner RB Out Ankle
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Groin

NO

Jermon Bushrod G Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:37 FG PIT (5:37) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 03:01 TD NO (3:01) 22-M.Ingram left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 14:10 FG PIT (14:10) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 10:27 TD NO (10:27) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – NO 13
  • Q2 00:44 TD PIT (:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – NO 14
  • Q2 00:07 FG NO (:07) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Penalty on PIT-23-J.Haden, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 14 – NO 17
  • Q3 09:16 TD NO (9:16) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – NO 23
  • Q3 04:53 TD PIT (4:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 PIT 20 – NO 24
  • Q3 01:05 TD PIT (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0 PIT 27 – NO 24
  • Q4 01:28 TD NO (1:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PIT 1 for 1 yard (23-J.Haden). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 PIT 28 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:06) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 77%

    (5:37) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (14:10) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:34) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to NO 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to PIT 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (14:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to PIT 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (6:17) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Fort), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by PIT-54-L.Fort at PIT 37.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:11) (Punt formation) 45-R.Nix left guard to PIT 46 for 4 yards (52-C.Robertson, 31-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 39 for 19 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 19, YAC 0 The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.