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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Fort), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by PIT-54-L.Fort at PIT 37.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model