Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 39 for 19 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 19, YAC 0 The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.80 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model