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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model