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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TB
46.5%
DAL
53.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
DAL 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Thumb

DAL

David Irving DE Out Ankle
Geoff Swaim TE Out Wrist
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Hand
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Groin
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Zack Martin G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:12 FG TB (12:12) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 07:12 TD DAL (7:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – DAL 6
  • Q1 01:57 TD DAL (1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – DAL 13
  • Q2 09:19 FG TB (9:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – DAL 14
  • Q2 01:48 FG DAL (1:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 6 – DAL 17
  • Q2 00:25 TD TB (:25) (Shotgun) 32-J.Rodgers right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – DAL 17
  • Q3 03:44 FG DAL (3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. TB 13 – DAL 20
  • Q3 02:27 TD DAL (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – DAL 26
  • Q4 02:12 TD TB (2:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – DAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (12:12) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (9:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:14) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to DAL 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (3:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (1:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to TB 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 71%

    (10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 32-J.Rodgers to 50 for 5 yards (25-X.Woods; 54-J.Smith).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to DAL 2 for 5 yards (99-A.Woods).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:36) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.