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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP