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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to TB 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.68 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP