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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model