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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model