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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 32-J.Rodgers to 50 for 5 yards (25-X.Woods; 54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model