4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Smith (41-C.Munnerlyn).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.44 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model