4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CAR
30.4%
NO
69.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Kyle Allen (CAR): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Kyle Allen in place of Taylor Heinicke)
  • NO defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Cam Newton QB Out right Shoulder
Kawann Short DT Out Calf
Trai Turner G Out Ankle
Kenjon Barner RB Questionable Knee
Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Hip

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Pectoral
Jermon Bushrod G Out Hamstring
Larry Warford G Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 33
–
NO 14

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD CAR (10:17) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 7-K.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 02:14 TD CAR (2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – NO 0
  • Q2 02:06 TD CAR (2:06) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 80-I.Thomas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0 CAR 19 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 4-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 23 – NO 0
  • Q3 03:55 TD CAR (3:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 50, YAC 3 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 29 – NO 0
  • Q4 13:36 TD NO (13:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0 CAR 30 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:22 FG CAR (8:22) 4-C.Catanzaro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 33 – NO 7
  • Q4 03:53 TD NO (3:53) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO QB #7 T.Hill in game as QB CAR 33 – NO 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%

    (7:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 97%

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Smith (41-C.Munnerlyn).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (6:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 13-J.Wright to NO 28 for 11 yards (47-A.Anzalone). Pass 3, YAC 8

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:40) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-59-V.Biegel.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 4-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 28 for 2 yards (98-M.Haynes; 42-C.Jones).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (8:22) 4-C.Catanzaro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 49%

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 38-T.Cadet left guard to NO 43 for no gain (24-V.Bell).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NO 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 32 for 16 yards (57-A.Smith).