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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 13 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 13-J.Wright to NO 28 for 11 yards (47-A.Anzalone). Pass 3, YAC 8

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model