Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

(9:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model