Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 0

(7:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 28 for 2 yards (98-M.Haynes; 42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.35 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model