Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 33 – New Orleans Saints 14

(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NO 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 32 for 16 yards (57-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model