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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model