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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:29) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to CHI 29, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model