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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CHI
48.1%
MIN
51.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Mitch Trubisky (CHI): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

Eddie Jackson S Doubtful Ankle
Aaron Lynch LB Doubtful Elbow
Allen Robinson WR Doubtful Ribs
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

MIN

Chad Beebe WR Out Hamstring
C.J. Ham RB Out Elbow
Eric Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Marcus Sherels CB Out Foot
Tom Compton G Questionable Shoulder
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 24
–
MIN 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:43 TD CHI (10:43) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 07:20 TD CHI (7:20) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:58 FG MIN (:58) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. CHI 13 – MIN 3
  • Q3 01:56 TD MIN (1:56) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – MIN 9
  • Q4 07:50 TD CHI (7:50) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – MIN 10
  • Q4 04:29 FG CHI (4:29) 1-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 24 – MIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:29) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to CHI 29, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:42) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 29. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 29 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 25 for 4 yards (47-I.Irving).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:04) 6-M.Wile punts 56 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (15:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 19 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:15) 6-M.Wile punts 65 yards to CHI 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 30 for -2 yards (50-E.Wilson; 40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 30. Bench interfered with the official

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:42) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (:58) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (9:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (38-A.Amos).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 87%

    (4:29) 1-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-K.Rudolph (22-K.Toliver II) [98-B.Nichols].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 11-K.White.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 15-B.Zylstra.