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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model