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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model