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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 32

Chicago Bears 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 11-K.White.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP