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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 15-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.77 EP