Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 29. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 29 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model