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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 67

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 25 for 4 yards (47-I.Irving).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model