Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(5:04) 6-M.Wile punts 56 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.17 EP
49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model