Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 59

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(15:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.20 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model