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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP