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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 20:20 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

IND
61.2%
TEN
38.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Blaine Gabbert (TEN) -0.223 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.215 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • TEN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 24
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

IND

Daurice Fountain WR Out Ankle
Ryan Kelly C Out Neck
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Hip
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Ankle
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Knee
Jabaal Sheard DE Questionable Teeth
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Concussion
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Shoulder

TEN

Brian Orakpo LB Out Elbow
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 33
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 TD IND (6:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 09:32 TD IND (9:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 0
  • Q2 06:47 TD TEN (6:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left intended for 21-N.Hines INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown at IND 22. 55-J.Brown for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:44 FG IND (:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – TEN 7
  • Q2 00:05 FG TEN (:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. Penalty on IND-92-M.Hunt, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. IND 17 – TEN 10
  • Q3 10:51 TD IND (10:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 45-R.Hewitt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – TEN 10
  • Q3 01:55 TD TEN (1:55) (No Huddle) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 24 – TEN 16
  • Q4 04:00 FG IND (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 27 – TEN 17
  • Q4 02:28 TD IND (2:28) 25-M.Mack right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 45%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 51%

    (13:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to TEN 35 for 6 yards (55-J.Brown).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:10) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-28-C.Milton at TEN 9. 28-C.Milton to TEN 9 for no gain (25-A.Jackson).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to IND 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on IND-97-A.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at IND 12.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 26%

    (8:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to TEN 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:41) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 7 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (13:36) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 91 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Taylor (53-D.Leonard).