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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP